New pandemic in 2026? — live odds

"New pandemic in 2026?" is trading at a 3% implied probability, with YES at 3¢ and NO at 97¢. $1.2M has changed hands so far, $5K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.

implied probability

YES 3¢NO 97¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

$5K

24h volume

$1.2M

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±26.3¢ swing band
7d ago
Odds swing
44¢ → 2¢ (-42¢ in 15 min)
7d ago
High volatility
±27¢ swing band
7d ago
High volatility
±13.8¢ swing band
8d ago
High volatility
±32.2¢ swing band
8d ago
High volatility
±34.1¢ swing band
10d ago
High volatility
±25.5¢ swing band
64d ago
High volatility
±27¢ swing band
64d ago
High volatility
±24.7¢ swing band
64d ago
Odds swing
3¢ → 93¢ (+90¢ in 15 min)
64d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.