New pandemic in 2026? — live odds
7%
implied probability
recent price
-90¢ over the window
-90¢
24h change
$1K
24h volume
$911K
total volume
Dec 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 8d ago
High volatility
±38.2¢ swing band
- 8d ago
High volatility
±38¢ swing band
- 8d ago
High volatility
±39.5¢ swing band
- 8d ago
High volatility
±39.8¢ swing band
- 10d ago
High volatility
±24.8¢ swing band
- 10d ago
Odds swing
95¢ → 9¢ (-86¢ in 15 min)
- 10d ago
Odds swing
7¢ → 97¢ (+90¢ in 15 min)
- 10d ago
High volatility
±36¢ swing band
- 12d ago
High volatility
±22¢ swing band
- 30d ago
High volatility
±10.6¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "New pandemic in 2026?"?
The market currently prices YES at 7¢ and NO at 94¢, an implied probability of 7% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$911K has been traded in total, $1K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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