Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? live odds

10%

implied probability

YES 10¢NO 90¢

recent price

+1¢ over the window

+1¢

24h change

$6K

24h volume

$144K

total volume

Sep 30, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?"?

The market currently prices YES at 10¢ and NO at 90¢, an implied probability of 10% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by September 30, 2026.

How much has been traded on this market?

$144K has been traded in total, $6K of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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