Trump out as President before GTA VI? live odds

50%

implied probability

YES 50¢NO 51¢

recent price

+28¢ over the window

+28¢

24h change

$2K

24h volume

$702K

total volume

Jul 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±15.8¢ swing band

    32d ago
  • High volatility

    ±5.4¢ swing band

    32d ago
  • Odds swing

    35¢ → 48¢ (+13¢ in 15 min)

    32d ago
  • High volatility

    ±6.5¢ swing band

    32d ago
  • Odds swing

    3¢ → 25¢ (+22¢ in 15 min)

    32d ago
  • High volatility

    ±4.5¢ swing band

    32d ago
  • Odds swing

    21¢ → 2¢ (-19¢ in 15 min)

    32d ago
  • High volatility

    ±20¢ swing band

    32d ago
  • Odds swing

    26¢ → 34¢ (+8¢ in 15 min)

    32d ago
  • High volatility

    ±9.4¢ swing band

    32d ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump ceases to be the President of the U.S. for any period of time before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, will not count. The resolution source for Trump leaving the presidency will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Trump out as President before GTA VI?"?

The market currently prices YES at 50¢ and NO at 51¢, an implied probability of 50% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by July 31, 2026.

How much has been traded on this market?

$702K has been traded in total, $2K of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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