Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? — live odds

Part of Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?· see all 10 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?" is trading at a 80% implied probability, with YES at 80¢ and NO at 20¢. $823K has changed hands so far, $8K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2028. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this crypto market in real time.

80%

implied probability

YES 80¢NO 20¢

recent price

+16¢ over the window

+16¢

24h change

$8K

24h volume

$823K

total volume

Jan 1, 2028

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±4.8¢ swing band
11m ago
High volatility
±4¢ swing band
27m ago
High volatility
±4.8¢ swing band
2h ago
Odds swing
80¢ → 93¢ (+13¢ in 15 min)
2h ago
High volatility
±61.9¢ swing band
3h ago
High volatility
±7.3¢ swing band
3h ago
Odds swing
58¢ → 81¢ (+23¢ in 15 min)
3h ago
High volatility
±6¢ swing band
3h ago
High volatility
±18.1¢ swing band
4h ago
Odds swing
64¢ → 33¢ (-31¢ in 15 min)
4h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".