Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — live odds
13%
implied probability
recent price
-37¢ over the window
-37¢
24h change
$3K
24h volume
$420K
total volume
Dec 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 14d ago
High volatility
±28.4¢ swing band
- 14d ago
Odds swing
83¢ → 25¢ (-58¢ in 15 min)
- 14d ago
High volatility
±30.2¢ swing band
- 14d ago
Odds swing
85¢ → 14¢ (-71¢ in 15 min)
- 14d ago
High volatility
±26.9¢ swing band
- 15d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.967 · edge: 0.023
- 18d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.969 · edge: 0.021
- 18d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.969 · edge: 0.021
- 18d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.936 · edge: 0.054
- 18d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.951 · edge: 0.039
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?"?
The market currently prices YES at 13¢ and NO at 88¢, an implied probability of 13% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$420K has been traded in total, $3K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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