Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — live odds
"Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?" is trading at a 2% implied probability, with YES at 2¢ and NO at 98¢. $822K has changed hands so far, $361 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this tech market in real time.
2%
implied probability
recent price
+1¢ over the window
+1¢
24h change
$361
24h volume
$822K
total volume
Jan 1, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 23d ago
High volatility
±40.7¢ swing band
- 23d ago
Odds swing
11¢ → 66¢ (+55¢ in 15 min)
- 23d ago
High volatility
±27.9¢ swing band
- 23d ago
Odds swing
11¢ → 99¢ (+88¢ in 15 min)
- 23d ago
High volatility
±25.1¢ swing band
- 23d ago
Odds swing
11¢ → 66¢ (+55¢ in 15 min)
- 39d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.967 · edge: 0.023
- 80d ago
High volatility
±15.3¢ swing band
- 80d ago
High volatility
±20.4¢ swing band
- 80d ago
High volatility
±7.5¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?"?
The market currently prices YES at 2¢ and NO at 98¢, an implied probability of 2% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
How much has been traded on this market?
$822K has been traded in total, $361 of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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