Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — live odds

Part of Largest Company end of December 2026?· see all 8 outcomes →📲 Open in app

50%

implied probability

YES 50¢NO 50¢

recent price

+50¢ over the window

+50¢

24h change

$4K

24h volume

$520K

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±16.7¢ swing band

    12m ago

  • Odds swing

    6¢ → 40¢ (+34.2¢ in 15 min)

    12m ago

  • High volatility

    ±24.8¢ swing band

    28m ago

  • Odds swing

    90¢ → 7¢ (-83.3¢ in 15 min)

    43m ago

  • High volatility

    ±24.7¢ swing band

    58m ago

  • Odds swing

    8¢ → 64¢ (+56¢ in 15 min)

    58m ago

  • High volatility

    ±33.4¢ swing band

    1h ago

  • Odds swing

    37¢ → 70¢ (+33.1¢ in 15 min)

    1h ago

  • High volatility

    ±10.4¢ swing band

    1h ago

  • Odds swing

    29¢ → 87¢ (+58¢ in 15 min)

    1h ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?"?

The market currently prices YES at 50¢ and NO at 50¢, an implied probability of 50% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.

How much has been traded on this market?

$520K has been traded in total, $4K of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

Get alerted when this market moves

Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.

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