Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — live odds
"Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?" is trading at a 1% implied probability, with YES at 1¢ and NO at 99¢. $937K has changed hands so far, $4K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this tech market in real time.
1%
implied probability
recent price
-1¢ over the window
-1¢
24h change
$4K
24h volume
$937K
total volume
Dec 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 4d ago
High volatility
±39.5¢ swing band
- 4d ago
High volatility
±20.9¢ swing band
- 4d ago
Odds swing
2¢ → 74¢ (+71.8¢ in 15 min)
- 35d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.97 · edge: 0.02
- 38d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.953 · edge: 0.037
- 51d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.963 · edge: 0.027
- 51d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.965 · edge: 0.025
- 51d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.967 · edge: 0.023
- 52d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.968 · edge: 0.022
- 64d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.945 · edge: 0.045
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?"?
The market currently prices YES at 1¢ and NO at 99¢, an implied probability of 1% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$937K has been traded in total, $4K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
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