Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? — live odds

"Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?" is trading at a 95% implied probability, with YES at 95¢ and NO at 5¢. $330K has changed hands so far, $3K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this tech market in real time.

95%

implied probability

YES 95¢NO 5¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

$3K

24h volume

$330K

total volume

Dec 31, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±4.2¢ swing band
33d ago
High volatility
±31¢ swing band
59d ago
High volatility
±30.9¢ swing band
59d ago
High volatility
±33.9¢ swing band
59d ago
High volatility
±21.5¢ swing band
59d ago
High volatility
±34.3¢ swing band
62d ago
High volatility
±33.4¢ swing band
74d ago
High volatility
±18.9¢ swing band
74d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.