
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? — live odds
"Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?" is trading at a 25% implied probability, with YES at 25¢ and NO at 75¢. $633K has changed hands so far, $47K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2028. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this tech market in real time.
25%
implied probability
recent price
-1¢ over the window
-1¢
24h change
$47K
24h volume
$633K
total volume
Jan 1, 2028
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 18d ago
High volatility
±13.1¢ swing band
- 128d ago
High volatility
±22.7¢ swing band
- 128d ago
Odds swing
87¢ → 6¢ (-80.6¢ in 15 min)
- 128d ago
High volatility
±37¢ swing band
- 128d ago
Odds swing
15¢ → 27¢ (+12.3¢ in 15 min)
How this market resolves
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?"?
The market currently prices YES at 25¢ and NO at 75¢, an implied probability of 25% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2028.
How much has been traded on this market?
$633K has been traded in total, $47K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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