Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? — live odds

Part of 2nd Largest Company end of July?· see all 8 outcomes →📲 Open in app

25%

implied probability

YES 25¢NO 75¢

recent price

-63¢ over the window

-63¢

24h change

$5K

24h volume

$92K

total volume

Jul 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±46.1¢ swing band

    13m ago

  • Odds swing

    11¢ → 79¢ (+68¢ in 15 min)

    13m ago

  • High volatility

    ±54.5¢ swing band

    28m ago

  • High volatility

    ±47.9¢ swing band

    43m ago

  • Odds swing

    97¢ → 2¢ (-95¢ in 15 min)

    43m ago

  • High volatility

    ±8.5¢ swing band

    58m ago

  • High volatility

    ±9.8¢ swing band

    1h ago

  • Odds swing

    26¢ → 6¢ (-20¢ in 15 min)

    1h ago

  • High volatility

    ±41.2¢ swing band

    1h ago

  • Odds swing

    14¢ → 75¢ (+61¢ in 15 min)

    1h ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?"?

The market currently prices YES at 25¢ and NO at 75¢, an implied probability of 25% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by July 31, 2026.

How much has been traded on this market?

$92K has been traded in total, $5K of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

Get alerted when this market moves

Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.

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