Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31? — live odds

Part of Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?· see all 2 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?" is trading at a 99% implied probability, with YES at 99¢ and NO at 1¢. $112K has changed hands so far, $2K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by October 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this tech market in real time.

99%

implied probability

YES 99¢NO 1¢

recent price

+98¢ over the window

+98¢

24h change

$2K

24h volume

$112K

total volume

Oct 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±25.1¢ swing band
9d ago
Odds swing
0¢ → 39¢ (+38.9¢ in 15 min)
9d ago
High volatility
±26¢ swing band
9d ago
Odds swing
39¢ → 79¢ (+39.8¢ in 15 min)
9d ago
High volatility
±35.3¢ swing band
9d ago
High volatility
±17.3¢ swing band
9d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.