Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August? — live odds

Part of What price will Bitcoin hit in August?· see all 19 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?" is trading at a 6% implied probability, with YES at 6¢ and NO at 94¢. $55K has changed hands so far, $42K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by September 1, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this crypto market in real time.

implied probability

YES 6¢NO 94¢

recent price

+34¢ over the window

+34¢

24h change

$42K

24h volume

$55K

total volume

Sep 1, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

conviction signal
3m ago
High volatility
±28.3¢ swing band
9m ago
Odds swing
5¢ → 38¢ (+33.2¢ in 15 min)
9m ago
Volume spike
$404 traded — 10.4× the average
14m ago
Volume spike
$180 traded — 4.6× the average
21m ago
High volatility
±19.5¢ swing band
25m ago
Odds swing
38¢ → 48¢ (+10¢ in 15 min)
25m ago
Volume spike
$697 traded — 17.2× the average
33m ago
High volatility
±25.8¢ swing band
40m ago
Odds swing
0¢ → 48¢ (+47.9¢ in 15 min)
40m ago

How this market resolves

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.