TL;DR
- 🐋 $61.5K whale sell hits Fed interest rate market, dropping odds 98¢
- Clarity Act market drops 41¢ to 20¢
- Elon Musk tweet-count market rises 32.6¢ to 44.05¢
📈 The big moves
Today's Polymarket Daily Radar shows significant repricing across various markets, with the "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?" market leading the downside. This market, which prices the probability of a key political bill passing, saw its YES odds plummet 41¢, now trading at 20¢ (a 20% implied probability). It resolves at the end of 2026.
| Market | Move | Now | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | ▼ -41¢ | 20¢ (20%) | N/A |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | ▼ -34¢ | 45¢ (45%) | N/A |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | ▲ +32.6¢ | 44.05¢ (44.05%) | N/A |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August? | ▼ -31¢ | 46¢ (46%) | N/A |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | ▲ +30.4¢ | 40.4¢ (40.4%) | N/A |
| Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August? | ▼ -29¢ | 10¢ (10%) | N/A |
🐋 Whale watch
Whale activity today was dominated by a significant SELL order in the "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" market. A single whale executed a trade worth $61,514.83, causing the market's implied probability to drop by 98¢. This substantial move in the Fed and macro odds market highlights how large informed flows can quickly reprice expectations. For more on tracking these movements, see our whale watching guide.
Separately, the "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?" market saw a $46,500 BUY with a 79¢ price impact, while the August 31 version of the same market had a $45,137.08 BUY with a 97.7¢ negative impact.
📊 Volume spikes
Several markets experienced notable volume spikes over the last 24 hours. The "Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?" market saw its volume multiply by 39.5 times, reaching $1,869.15. The "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?" market spiked 42.3 times its average volume, totaling $154.35. Additionally, the "Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 19?" market showed a 62.0x volume spike with $177.81 traded. Analyzing these surges can reveal underlying sentiment shifts; learn more in our guide on how to read Polymarket.
| Market | Volume | vs average |
|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August? | $1,869.15 | 39.5× |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August? | $154.35 | 42.3× |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 19? | $177.81 | 62.0× |
| Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 August 17-23? | $222.20 | 16.3× |
🗓️ Resolving soon
Several markets are slated to resolve today, August 18th. These include "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?", various LoL esports matches like "LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3)", and "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?". Crypto traders are also watching "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 18?" as it closes. You can track all tweets on the Elon Musk tweet count tracker.
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