Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on August 4? — final odds

This market has ended · August 5, 2026Final price 50¢ YES — the market gave this a 50% implied probability.

"Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on August 4?" resolved on August 5, 2026 at a final price of 50¢ YES — a 50% implied probability — after $28K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

50%

implied probability

YES 50¢NO 50¢

recent price

+98¢ over the window

+98¢

24h change

$28K

24h volume

$28K

total volume

Aug 5, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Spread blowout
spread 1¢ vs 0.0284¢ normal
2h ago
High volatility
±26.2¢ swing band
2h ago
High volatility
±41.8¢ swing band
2h ago
conviction signal
2h ago
High volatility
±34.2¢ swing band
3h ago
Odds swing
67¢ → 2¢ (-65.3¢ in 15 min)
3h ago
High volatility
±25¢ swing band
3h ago
High volatility
±15.2¢ swing band
3h ago
Odds swing
0¢ → 93¢ (+92.9¢ in 15 min)
3h ago
High volatility
±22.3¢ swing band
4h ago

How this market resolves

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) on the date specified in the title, between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Quick answers

How did "Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on August 4?" resolve?

This market ended on August 5, 2026 with a final traded price of 50¢ YES (50% implied probability).

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 50¢ — an implied probability of 50%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.