
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? — live odds
50%
implied probability
recent price
-47¢ over the window
-47¢
24h change
$565
24h volume
$4.7M
total volume
Jul 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 32d ago
High volatility
±10.6¢ swing band
- 32d ago
Odds swing
19¢ → 0¢ (-18.9¢ in 15 min)
- 32d ago
High volatility
±38.7¢ swing band
- 32d ago
High volatility
±52.7¢ swing band
- 32d ago
High volatility
±17.7¢ swing band
- 32d ago
Odds swing
22¢ → 94¢ (+72.3¢ in 15 min)
- 32d ago
High volatility
±4.5¢ swing band
- 32d ago
High volatility
±41¢ swing band
- 32d ago
Odds swing
10¢ → 99¢ (+89¢ in 15 min)
- 32d ago
High volatility
±45.1¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has a final "High" price of $1,000,000 or higher before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. The resolution source for Bitcoin is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?"?
The market currently prices YES at 50¢ and NO at 50¢, an implied probability of 50% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by July 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$4.7M has been traded in total, $565 of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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