Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? — live odds

"Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?" is trading at a 95% implied probability, with YES at 95¢ and NO at 5¢. $813K has changed hands so far, $129 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this finance market in real time.

95%

implied probability

YES 95¢NO 5¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

$129

24h volume

$813K

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.961 · edge: 0.029

    94d ago
  • High volatility

    ±10¢ swing band

    106d ago
  • Odds swing

    79¢ → 45¢ (-34¢ in 15 min)

    106d ago
  • High volatility

    ±41.3¢ swing band

    111d ago
  • Odds swing

    20¢ → 73¢ (+53¢ in 15 min)

    111d ago
  • High volatility

    ±44.3¢ swing band

    111d ago
  • Odds swing

    73¢ → 45¢ (-28¢ in 15 min)

    111d ago
  • High volatility

    ±11.4¢ swing band

    111d ago
  • High volatility

    ±9.2¢ swing band

    115d ago
  • Odds swing

    69¢ → 50¢ (-19¢ in 15 min)

    115d ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?"?

The market currently prices YES at 95¢ and NO at 5¢, an implied probability of 95% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.

How much has been traded on this market?

$813K has been traded in total, $129 of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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