Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? — live odds

Part of OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap· see all 7 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?" is trading at a 85% implied probability, with YES at 85¢ and NO at 16¢. $465K has changed hands so far, $100 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this finance market in real time.

85%

implied probability

YES 85¢NO 16¢

recent price

+5¢ over the window

+5¢

24h change

$100

24h volume

$465K

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

complete set arb
sum: 0.961 · edge: 0.029
48d ago
High volatility
±10¢ swing band
60d ago
Odds swing
79¢ → 45¢ (-34¢ in 15 min)
60d ago
High volatility
±41.3¢ swing band
64d ago
Odds swing
20¢ → 73¢ (+53¢ in 15 min)
64d ago
High volatility
±44.3¢ swing band
64d ago
Odds swing
73¢ → 45¢ (-28¢ in 15 min)
64d ago
High volatility
±11.4¢ swing band
64d ago
High volatility
±9.2¢ swing band
69d ago
Odds swing
69¢ → 50¢ (-19¢ in 15 min)
69d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.