Will Larry Page be 3rd richest person on December 31? — live odds
2%
implied probability
recent price
-87¢ over the window
-87¢
24h change
—
24h volume
$7K
total volume
Dec 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 15h ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.696 · edge: 0.294
- 17h ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.614 · edge: 0.376
- 19h ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.69 · edge: 0.3
- 22h ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.699 · edge: 0.291
- 1d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.687 · edge: 0.303
- 1d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.684 · edge: 0.306
- 1d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.669 · edge: 0.321
- 1d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.692 · edge: 0.298
- 1d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.692 · edge: 0.298
- 1d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.695 · edge: 0.295
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #3 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Larry Page be 3rd richest person on December 31?"?
The market currently prices YES at 2¢ and NO at 99¢, an implied probability of 2% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$7K has been traded in total, — of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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