
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? — live odds
"Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?" is trading at a 0% implied probability, with YES at 0¢ and NO at 100¢. $527K has changed hands so far, $34 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this finance market in real time.
0%
implied probability
recent price
-2¢ over the window
-2¢
24h change
$34
24h volume
$527K
total volume
Jan 1, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 71d ago
High volatility
±36¢ swing band
- 71d ago
Odds swing
66¢ → 80¢ (+13.2¢ in 15 min)
- 72d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.969 · edge: 0.021
- 75d ago
High volatility
±22.3¢ swing band
- 75d ago
Odds swing
80¢ → 65¢ (-15.1¢ in 15 min)
- 75d ago
High volatility
±4.7¢ swing band
- 75d ago
Odds swing
83¢ → 65¢ (-18¢ in 15 min)
- 75d ago
High volatility
±16¢ swing band
- 75d ago
Odds swing
87¢ → 70¢ (-17¢ in 15 min)
- 75d ago
High volatility
±23.7¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?"?
The market currently prices YES at 0¢ and NO at 100¢, an implied probability of 0% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
How much has been traded on this market?
$527K has been traded in total, $34 of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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