Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? live odds

"Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?" is trading at a 0% implied probability, with YES at 0¢ and NO at 100¢. $527K has changed hands so far, $34 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this finance market in real time.

0%

implied probability

YES NO 100¢

recent price

-2¢ over the window

-2¢

24h change

$34

24h volume

$527K

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±36¢ swing band

    71d ago
  • Odds swing

    66¢ → 80¢ (+13.2¢ in 15 min)

    71d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.969 · edge: 0.021

    72d ago
  • High volatility

    ±22.3¢ swing band

    75d ago
  • Odds swing

    80¢ → 65¢ (-15.1¢ in 15 min)

    75d ago
  • High volatility

    ±4.7¢ swing band

    75d ago
  • Odds swing

    83¢ → 65¢ (-18¢ in 15 min)

    75d ago
  • High volatility

    ±16¢ swing band

    75d ago
  • Odds swing

    87¢ → 70¢ (-17¢ in 15 min)

    75d ago
  • High volatility

    ±23.7¢ swing band

    75d ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?"?

The market currently prices YES at 0¢ and NO at 100¢, an implied probability of 0% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.

How much has been traded on this market?

$527K has been traded in total, $34 of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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