
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? — live odds
"Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?" is trading at a 18% implied probability, with YES at 18¢ and NO at 82¢. $641K has changed hands so far, $53K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by August 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this culture market in real time.
18%
implied probability
recent price
-18¢ over the window
-18¢
24h change
$53K
24h volume
$641K
total volume
Aug 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?"?
The market currently prices YES at 18¢ and NO at 82¢, an implied probability of 18% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by August 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$641K has been traded in total, $53K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
Already have PolyWatch? Open this market in the app
Related Culture markets
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?
0%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?
0%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
92%
Will Bruno Mars be the top artist for 2026?
4%
Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?
78%
Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on December 31?
0%