Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? — live odds
6%
implied probability
recent price
-4¢ over the window
-4¢
24h change
$59K
24h volume
$36.2M
total volume
Dec 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 31d ago
High volatility
±12.1¢ swing band
- 31d ago
Odds swing
50¢ → 8¢ (-42¢ in 15 min)
- 31d ago
High volatility
±29¢ swing band
- 31d ago
High volatility
±32.8¢ swing band
- 31d ago
High volatility
±43¢ swing band
- 31d ago
Odds swing
8¢ → 98¢ (+90¢ in 15 min)
- 31d ago
High volatility
±18.8¢ swing band
- 31d ago
Odds swing
35¢ → 7¢ (-28¢ in 15 min)
- 31d ago
High volatility
±39.2¢ swing band
- 31d ago
Volume spike
$44 traded — 10689.7× the average
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?"?
The market currently prices YES at 6¢ and NO at 95¢, an implied probability of 6% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$36.2M has been traded in total, $59K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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