Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? — live odds

Part of Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?· see all 2 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?" is trading at a 4% implied probability, with YES at 4¢ and NO at 96¢. $38.0M has changed hands so far, $26K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

implied probability

YES 4¢NO 96¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

$26K

24h volume

$38.0M

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±12.1¢ swing band
77d ago
Odds swing
50¢ → 8¢ (-42¢ in 15 min)
77d ago
High volatility
±29¢ swing band
77d ago
High volatility
±32.8¢ swing band
77d ago
High volatility
±43¢ swing band
77d ago
Odds swing
8¢ → 98¢ (+90¢ in 15 min)
77d ago
High volatility
±18.8¢ swing band
77d ago
Odds swing
35¢ → 7¢ (-28¢ in 15 min)
77d ago
High volatility
±39.2¢ swing band
77d ago
Volume spike
$44 traded — 10689.7× the average
77d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.