Will Warren Buffett be 3rd richest person on December 31? — live odds

Part of 3rd richest person on December 31?· see all 3 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Warren Buffett be 3rd richest person on December 31?" is trading at a 8% implied probability, with YES at 8¢ and NO at 92¢. $1K has changed hands so far, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this culture market in real time.

implied probability

YES 8¢NO 92¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

—

24h volume

$1K

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

complete set arb
sum: 0.395 · edge: 0.595
5d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.395 · edge: 0.595
5d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.397 · edge: 0.593
5d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.397 · edge: 0.593
5d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.399 · edge: 0.591
5d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.401 · edge: 0.589
6d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.403 · edge: 0.587
6d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.395 · edge: 0.595
6d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.397 · edge: 0.593
6d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.399 · edge: 0.591
6d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #3 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.