Will Warren Buffett be 3rd richest person on December 31? — live odds

Part of 3rd richest person on December 31?· see all 3 outcomes →📲 Open in app

26%

implied probability

YES 26¢NO 74¢

recent price

-68¢ over the window

-68¢

24h change

—

24h volume

$1K

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

complete set arb
sum: 0.694 · edge: 0.296
46m ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.612 · edge: 0.378
2h ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.677 · edge: 0.313
3h ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.677 · edge: 0.313
5h ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.619 · edge: 0.371
7h ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.672 · edge: 0.318
8h ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.647 · edge: 0.343
9h ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.662 · edge: 0.328
10h ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.658 · edge: 0.332
11h ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.673 · edge: 0.317
12h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #3 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.