TL;DR
- 🐋 $98.5K whale buy in Fed hike market absorbed; 78¢ impact.
- LoL: Ground Zero Gaming vs Frank Esports market jumps 49.5¢.
- Bitcoin $57.5K dip market sees $4.3K volume (367x average).
📈 The big moves
Polymarket saw significant movement today, with LoL esports and Anthropic IPO valuation markets leading the charge.
| Market | Move | Now |
|---|---|---|
| LoL: Ground Zero Gaming vs Frank Esports (BO5) | ▲ +49.5¢ | 79¢ (79%) |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T? | ▲ +38¢ | 44¢ (44%) |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T? | ▼ -31.9¢ | 50¢ (50%) |
| Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? | ▼ -28.5¢ | 68.5¢ (68.5%) |
The LoL: Ground Zero Gaming market experienced the largest single price surge, moving up 49.5¢ to price Ground Zero at 79%. This esports market is set to resolve later today, making its swift repricing particularly notable.
🐋 Whale watch
Whale activity today was concentrated in key macro and geopolitical markets, demonstrating how significant capital moves can be absorbed by prevailing market sentiment. For a deeper dive, see our whale watching guide.
The largest individual trade was a $98.5K BUY on the Fed interest rate hike market. Despite the substantial buy volume, the market price saw a -78¢ impact, indicating the trade was absorbed without moving the odds in the buyer's favor. Another $26.5K BUY on the same market also saw a -77.3¢ impact.
Separately, a $60K SELL on the Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? market was met with an -86¢ price impact, suggesting resistance to the selling pressure. Explore more Fed and macro odds.
📊 Volume spikes
Several markets saw significant volume spikes, notably in crypto and tech.
| Market | Volume | vs average |
|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in November? | $4.3K | 367.6× |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? | $5.0K | 137.4× |
| Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | $20 | 11.5× |
| Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? | $50 | 11.2× |
The market predicting a Bitcoin dip to $57,500 saw $4.3K in volume, a remarkable 367.6 times its average. This activity on Bitcoin price targets can be followed closely on our Bitcoin price target tracker.
🗓️ Resolving soon
A few markets are poised to resolve within the next 48 hours, including key esports matchups and sports awards. The LoL: Ground Zero Gaming vs Frank Esports (BO5) market resolves today, following its significant price movement. Other markets like Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FK Austria Wien end in a draw? and Will Jakob Glesnes win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? are also nearing their resolution windows.
PolyWatch pushes market moves like these the moment they land — free on iOS and Android.
