Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? — live odds

"Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?" is trading at a 16% implied probability, with YES at 16¢ and NO at 85¢. $1.1M has changed hands so far, $65K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

16%

implied probability

YES 16¢NO 85¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

$65K

24h volume

$1.1M

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±8.2¢ swing band
84d ago
Odds swing
12¢ → 32¢ (+20¢ in 15 min)
84d ago
High volatility
±13.5¢ swing band
84d ago
Odds swing
55¢ → 7¢ (-48¢ in 15 min)
84d ago
High volatility
±11.2¢ swing band
84d ago
Odds swing
70¢ → 7¢ (-63¢ in 15 min)
84d ago
High volatility
±9.2¢ swing band
84d ago
Odds swing
19¢ → 57¢ (+38¢ in 15 min)
84d ago
High volatility
±10.3¢ swing band
84d ago
Odds swing
70¢ → 51¢ (-19¢ in 15 min)
84d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.