Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? — live odds
"Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?" is trading at a 1% implied probability, with YES at 1¢ and NO at 99¢. $146K has changed hands so far, $12 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by November 1, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
1%
implied probability
recent price
0¢ over the window
0¢
24h change
$12
24h volume
$146K
total volume
Nov 1, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?"?
The market currently prices YES at 1¢ and NO at 99¢, an implied probability of 1% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by November 1, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$146K has been traded in total, $12 of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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