Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? — live odds

"Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?" is trading at a 3% implied probability, with YES at 3¢ and NO at 97¢. $18.0M has changed hands so far, $21K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.

implied probability

YES 3¢NO 97¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

$21K

24h volume

$18.0M

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Volume spike
$203 traded — 8.1× the average
38m ago
Volume spike
$100 traded — 3.9× the average
3h ago
Volume spike
$1,986 traded — 74.4× the average
6h ago
Volume spike
$1,000 traded — 31.4× the average
11h ago
Volume spike
$469 traded — 10.7× the average
14h ago
High volatility
±4.7¢ swing band
15h ago
Volume spike
$99 traded — 3.4× the average
17h ago
Volume spike
$2,124 traded — 72.5× the average
17h ago
High volatility
±4.7¢ swing band
17h ago
High volatility
±4.7¢ swing band
18h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.