IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? — final odds

Resolved NO · November 1, 2026Final price 0¢ YES — the market gave this a 0% implied probability.

"IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?" resolved NO on November 1, 2026 at a final price of 0¢ YES — a 0% implied probability — after $105K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

0%

implied probability

YES 0¢NO 100¢

recent price

—

24h change

$684

24h volume

$105K

total volume

Nov 1, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±5.7¢ swing band

    86d ago
  • Odds swing

    7¢ → 20¢ (+13¢ in 15 min)

    86d ago
  • High volatility

    ±36.4¢ swing band

    86d ago
  • High volatility

    ±5¢ swing band

    86d ago
  • High volatility

    ±33.2¢ swing band

    86d ago
  • High volatility

    ±4.7¢ swing band

    86d ago
  • Odds swing

    7¢ → 20¢ (+13¢ in 15 min)

    86d ago
  • High volatility

    ±36.1¢ swing band

    86d ago
  • Odds swing

    7¢ → 20¢ (+13¢ in 15 min)

    86d ago
  • High volatility

    ±4.7¢ swing band

    86d ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.

Quick answers

How did "IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on November 1, 2026. Its final traded price was 0¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 0¢ — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$105K was traded over the market's lifetime.

Get alerted when this market moves

Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.

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