Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7? — final odds

On July 30, 2026, the Board of Peace announced "A Roadmap for Completing the Implementation of President Trump's Comprehensive Peace Plan in Gaza" (the "Board of Peace roadmap"), setting out a phased process for disarmament in and Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces that it has accepted or does accept this roadmap by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Israel's acceptance of a plan described by a consensus of credible reporting as a revised or successor agreement to the initial roadmap (e.g., the implementation mechanism described in the roadmap) will qualify. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of Israel's acceptance of or commitment to this roadmap or a qualifying successor agreement. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the Board of Peace roadmap or a successor agreement. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe the roadmap or a successor agreement, without clearly communicating acceptance of it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the roadmap by name, provided the substantive policy of accepting the roadmap is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the government of Israel; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the government of Israel will announce or implement acceptance of the roadmap; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; Announcements or acceptances of the roadmap attributed only to Hamas, the Board of Peace, the United States, mediating states, or any party other than Israel; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional acceptance rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the roadmap is actually implemented in practice. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel.