Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by July 31? final odds

Resolved NO · July 31, 2026Final price YES — the market gave this a 1% implied probability.

"Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by July 31?" resolved NO on July 31, 2026 at a final price of 1¢ YES — a 1% implied probability — after $104K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

1%

implied probability

YES NO 99¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

$60

24h volume

$104K

total volume

Jul 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±15.6¢ swing band

    24d ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Nabatieh in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Nabatieh will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.

Quick answers

How did "Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by July 31?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on July 31, 2026. Its final traded price was 1¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 1¢ — an implied probability of 1%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$104K was traded over the market's lifetime.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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