Kash Patel out by August 31? — live odds
"Kash Patel out by August 31?" is trading at a 0% implied probability, with YES at — and NO at —. $3K has changed hands so far, $375 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by August 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
0%
implied probability
recent price
—
24h change
$375
24h volume
$3K
total volume
Aug 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of time between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Kash Patel out by August 31?"?
The market currently prices YES at — and NO at —, an implied probability of 0% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by August 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$3K has been traded in total, $375 of it in the last 24 hours.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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