Kash Patel out by December 31? — live odds

Part of Kash Patel out by...?· see all 3 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Kash Patel out by December 31?" is trading at a 25% implied probability, with YES at 25¢ and NO at 76¢. $327K has changed hands so far, $9K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

25%

implied probability

YES 25¢NO 76¢

recent price

-10¢ over the window

-10¢

24h change

$9K

24h volume

$327K

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.