Kash Patel out by July 31? — final odds

Resolved NO · July 31, 2026Final price 1¢ YES — the market gave this a 1% implied probability.

Part of Kash Patel out by...?· see all 3 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Kash Patel out by July 31?" resolved NO on July 31, 2026 at a final price of 1¢ YES — a 1% implied probability — after $64K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

implied probability

YES 1¢NO 99¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

$573

24h volume

$64K

total volume

Jul 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±45¢ swing band
29d ago
Odds swing
99¢ → 8¢ (-91¢ in 15 min)
29d ago
High volatility
±33.5¢ swing band
29d ago
Odds swing
99¢ → 64¢ (-35¢ in 15 min)
29d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Quick answers

How did "Kash Patel out by July 31?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on July 31, 2026. Its final traded price was 1¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 1¢ — an implied probability of 1%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.