Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? — live odds

"Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?" is trading at a 3% implied probability, with YES at 3¢ and NO at 97¢. $783K has changed hands so far, $5K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

implied probability

YES 3¢NO 97¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

$5K

24h volume

$783K

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±9.2¢ swing band
135d ago
Odds swing
64¢ → 89¢ (+25¢ in 15 min)
135d ago
High volatility
±11.1¢ swing band
135d ago
Odds swing
71¢ → 94¢ (+23¢ in 15 min)
135d ago
High volatility
±8.6¢ swing band
135d ago
Odds swing
64¢ → 89¢ (+25¢ in 15 min)
135d ago
High volatility
±6.6¢ swing band
135d ago
Odds swing
50¢ → 70¢ (+20¢ in 15 min)
135d ago
High volatility
±5.5¢ swing band
135d ago
Odds swing
61¢ → 70¢ (+9¢ in 15 min)
135d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.