
Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by October 15? — final odds
"Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by October 15?" resolved NO on October 16, 2026 at a final price of 0¢ YES — a 0% implied probability — after $63K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.
0%
implied probability
recent price
—
24h change
$5K
24h volume
$63K
total volume
Oct 16, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's hourly odds value is higher than Flávio Bolsonaro's hourly odds value in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and October 16, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva or Flávio Bolsonaro in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing before October 16, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for both Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro between market creation and October 16, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve to "Yes" if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/brazil-president-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
Quick answers
How did "Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by October 15?" resolve?
This market resolved NO on October 16, 2026. Its final traded price was 0¢ YES.
What did the market predict?
Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 0¢ — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
How much was traded on this market?
$63K was traded over the market's lifetime.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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