Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round? — final odds

Resolved YES · October 24, 2026Final price 99¢ YES — the market gave this a 99% implied probability.

"Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?" resolved YES on October 24, 2026 at a final price of 99¢ YES — a 99% implied probability — after $70K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

99%

implied probability

YES 99¢NO 1¢

recent price

—

24h change

$31K

24h volume

$70K

total volume

Oct 24, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) and Flávio Bolsonaro participate in the same televised Brazilian presidential debate by October 24, 2026, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro must each speak at least once in the same debate, televised live. Virtual live participation will qualify. Prerecorded appearances will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the debate, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Quick answers

How did "Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?" resolve?

This market resolved YES on October 24, 2026. Its final traded price was 99¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 99¢ — an implied probability of 99%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.