Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by July 31? — final odds

Resolved NO · July 31, 2026Final price 0¢ YES — the market gave this a 0% implied probability.

"Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by July 31?" resolved NO on July 31, 2026 at a final price of 0¢ YES — a 0% implied probability — after $71K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

implied probability

YES 0¢NO 100¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

24h volume

$71K

total volume

Jul 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Quick answers

How did "Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by July 31?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on July 31, 2026. Its final traded price was 0¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 0¢ — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.