Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? — live odds

Part of Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?· see all 2 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?" is trading at a 12% implied probability, with YES at 12¢ and NO at 89¢. $777K has changed hands so far, $2K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

12%

implied probability

YES 12¢NO 89¢

recent price

-10¢ over the window

-10¢

24h change

$2K

24h volume

$777K

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.