Netanyahu out by end of 2026? — live odds

"Netanyahu out by end of 2026?" is trading at a 42% implied probability, with YES at 42¢ and NO at 59¢. $2.8M has changed hands so far, $10K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

42%

implied probability

YES 42¢NO 59¢

recent price

+1¢ over the window

+1¢

24h change

$10K

24h volume

$2.8M

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±33¢ swing band
122d ago
Odds swing
25¢ → 85¢ (+60¢ in 15 min)
122d ago
Odds swing
85¢ → 18¢ (-67¢ in 15 min)
122d ago
High volatility
±29.3¢ swing band
122d ago
Odds swing
85¢ → 97¢ (+12¢ in 15 min)
122d ago
High volatility
±8.4¢ swing band
122d ago
Odds swing
4¢ → 28¢ (+24¢ in 15 min)
122d ago
High volatility
±53.5¢ swing band
122d ago
Odds swing
85¢ → 60¢ (-25¢ in 15 min)
122d ago
High volatility
±70.4¢ swing band
122d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.