Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? — final odds

Resolved YES · November 4, 2026Final price 98¢ YES — the market gave this a 98% implied probability.

"Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?" resolved YES on November 4, 2026 at a final price of 98¢ YES — a 98% implied probability — after $71K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

98%

implied probability

YES 98¢NO 2¢

recent price

—

24h change

$1K

24h volume

$71K

total volume

Nov 4, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

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Quick answers

How did "Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?" resolve?

This market resolved YES on November 4, 2026. Its final traded price was 98¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 98¢ — an implied probability of 98%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.