OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? live odds

80%

implied probability

YES 80¢NO 20¢

recent price

+3¢ over the window

+3¢

24h change

24h volume

$105K

total volume

Dec 31, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±21.2¢ swing band

    24d ago
  • Odds swing

    14¢ → 82¢ (+68¢ in 15 min)

    24d ago
  • High volatility

    ±16.2¢ swing band

    24d ago
  • Odds swing

    12¢ → 54¢ (+42¢ in 15 min)

    24d ago
  • High volatility

    ±23¢ swing band

    24d ago
  • Odds swing

    1¢ → 20¢ (+19¢ in 15 min)

    24d ago
  • High volatility

    ±41.9¢ swing band

    24d ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?"?

The market currently prices YES at 80¢ and NO at 20¢, an implied probability of 80% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2027.

How much has been traded on this market?

$105K has been traded in total, — of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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