Paris curfew by October 19? — final odds

Resolved YES · October 20, 2026Final price 100¢ YES — the market gave this a 100% implied probability.

"Paris curfew by October 19?" resolved YES on October 20, 2026 at a final price of 100¢ YES — a 100% implied probability — after $143K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

100%

implied probability

YES 100¢NO 0¢

recent price

—

24h change

$140K

24h volume

$143K

total volume

Oct 20, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a curfew is officially announced in any part of the City of Paris, France between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A curfew refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits the general population from being present in, or moving through, public spaces in the City of Paris, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A qualifying curfew may be citywide or limited to specific arrondissements or neighborhoods of Paris, and must be officially declared by the City of Paris, the Paris Police Prefecture (Préfecture de police), or a French national authority. Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, curfews applying only to minors or other specific groups, and conditional or prospective statements that a curfew may be imposed will not qualify. Orders restricting demonstrations or gatherings, closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not qualify unless they also impose a curfew as defined above. Any qualifying curfew which is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris local time will count regardless of if or when it goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Quick answers

How did "Paris curfew by October 19?" resolve?

This market resolved YES on October 20, 2026. Its final traded price was 100¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 100¢ — an implied probability of 100%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$143K was traded over the market's lifetime.

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