Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? — live odds
"Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?" is trading at a 38% implied probability, with YES at 38¢ and NO at 63¢. $813K has changed hands so far, $51K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
38%
implied probability
recent price
+15¢ over the window
+15¢
24h change
$51K
24h volume
$813K
total volume
Jan 1, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?"?
The market currently prices YES at 38¢ and NO at 63¢, an implied probability of 38% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
How much has been traded on this market?
$813K has been traded in total, $51K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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