Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? — final odds

Resolved NO · July 31, 2026Final price 0¢ YES — the market gave this a 0% implied probability.

"Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?" resolved NO on July 31, 2026 at a final price of 0¢ YES — a 0% implied probability — after $134K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

implied probability

YES 0¢NO 100¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

$8K

24h volume

$134K

total volume

Jul 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Quick answers

How did "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on July 31, 2026. Its final traded price was 0¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 0¢ — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.