Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? — live odds
"Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?" is trading at a 7% implied probability, with YES at 7¢ and NO at 94¢. $20.0M has changed hands so far, $71K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
7%
implied probability
recent price
-4¢ over the window
-4¢
24h change
$71K
24h volume
$20.0M
total volume
Jan 1, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 76d ago
High volatility
±23.7¢ swing band
- 76d ago
Odds swing
2¢ → 85¢ (+83¢ in 15 min)
- 76d ago
Odds swing
88¢ → 7¢ (-81¢ in 15 min)
- 76d ago
Volume spike
$10 traded — 12.3× the average
- 76d ago
Volume spike
$5 traded — 6.9× the average
- 76d ago
Volume spike
$5 traded — 6.9× the average
- 76d ago
High volatility
±14.6¢ swing band
- 76d ago
Odds swing
89¢ → 10¢ (-79¢ in 15 min)
- 76d ago
Volume spike
$5 traded — 6.9× the average
- 76d ago
Volume spike
$9 traded — 11.6× the average
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?"?
The market currently prices YES at 7¢ and NO at 94¢, an implied probability of 7% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
How much has been traded on this market?
$20.0M has been traded in total, $71K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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