Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? live odds

9%

implied probability

YES NO 92¢

recent price

-4¢ over the window

-4¢

24h change

$31K

24h volume

$17.5M

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±23.7¢ swing band

    31d ago
  • Odds swing

    2¢ → 85¢ (+83¢ in 15 min)

    31d ago
  • Odds swing

    88¢ → 7¢ (-81¢ in 15 min)

    31d ago
  • Volume spike

    $10 traded — 12.3× the average

    31d ago
  • Volume spike

    $5 traded — 6.9× the average

    31d ago
  • Volume spike

    $5 traded — 6.9× the average

    31d ago
  • High volatility

    ±14.6¢ swing band

    31d ago
  • Odds swing

    89¢ → 10¢ (-79¢ in 15 min)

    31d ago
  • Volume spike

    $5 traded — 6.9× the average

    31d ago
  • Volume spike

    $9 traded — 11.6× the average

    31d ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?"?

The market currently prices YES at 9¢ and NO at 92¢, an implied probability of 9% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.

How much has been traded on this market?

$17.5M has been traded in total, $31K of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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