Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? — live odds

Part of Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?· see all 5 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?" is trading at a 5% implied probability, with YES at 5¢ and NO at 95¢. $353K has changed hands so far, $865 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by October 1, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this tech market in real time.

implied probability

YES 5¢NO 95¢

recent price

+1¢ over the window

+1¢

24h change

$865

24h volume

$353K

total volume

Oct 1, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±39.8¢ swing band
69d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.