Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 15? final odds

Resolved NO · September 16, 2026Final price YES — the market gave this a 0% implied probability.

"Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 15?" resolved NO on September 16, 2026 at a final price of 0¢ YES — a 0% implied probability — after $57K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

0%

implied probability

YES NO 100¢

recent price

-4¢ over the window

-4¢

24h change

$7K

24h volume

$57K

total volume

Sep 16, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Quick answers

How did "Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 15?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on September 16, 2026. Its final traded price was 0¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 0¢ — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$57K was traded over the market's lifetime.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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