Trump out as President by August 31? — live odds
"Trump out as President by August 31?" is trading at a 1% implied probability, with YES at 1¢ and NO at 99¢. $796K has changed hands so far, $135K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by August 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
1%
implied probability
recent price
-83¢ over the window
-83¢
24h change
$135K
24h volume
$796K
total volume
Aug 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Trump out as President by August 31?"?
The market currently prices YES at 1¢ and NO at 99¢, an implied probability of 1% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by August 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$796K has been traded in total, $135K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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