Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? — live odds

"Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?" is trading at a 3% implied probability, with YES at 3¢ and NO at 98¢. $1.2M has changed hands so far, $271 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

implied probability

YES 3¢NO 98¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

$271

24h volume

$1.2M

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±23.3¢ swing band
86d ago
High volatility
±2.2¢ swing band
86d ago
High volatility
±46.7¢ swing band
86d ago
Odds swing
7¢ → 96¢ (+89.5¢ in 15 min)
86d ago
High volatility
±17¢ swing band
86d ago
Odds swing
6¢ → 64¢ (+58.5¢ in 15 min)
86d ago
High volatility
±24.1¢ swing band
86d ago
Odds swing
9¢ → 75¢ (+66.1¢ in 15 min)
86d ago
High volatility
±17.2¢ swing band
86d ago
Odds swing
70¢ → 4¢ (-66¢ in 15 min)
86d ago

How this market resolves

If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.