Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? — live odds
"Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?" is trading at a 4% implied probability, with YES at 4¢ and NO at 96¢. $1.2M has changed hands so far, $11 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
4%
implied probability
recent price
0¢ over the window
0¢
24h change
$11
24h volume
$1.2M
total volume
Dec 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 41d ago
High volatility
±23.3¢ swing band
- 41d ago
High volatility
±2.2¢ swing band
- 41d ago
High volatility
±46.7¢ swing band
- 41d ago
Odds swing
7¢ → 96¢ (+89.5¢ in 15 min)
- 41d ago
High volatility
±17¢ swing band
- 41d ago
Odds swing
6¢ → 64¢ (+58.5¢ in 15 min)
- 41d ago
High volatility
±24.1¢ swing band
- 41d ago
Odds swing
9¢ → 75¢ (+66.1¢ in 15 min)
- 41d ago
High volatility
±17.2¢ swing band
- 41d ago
Odds swing
70¢ → 4¢ (-66¢ in 15 min)
How this market resolves
If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?"?
The market currently prices YES at 4¢ and NO at 96¢, an implied probability of 4% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$1.2M has been traded in total, $11 of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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