U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? live odds

"U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?" is trading at a 88% implied probability, with YES at 88¢ and NO at 12¢. $854K has changed hands so far, $695K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by July 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

88%

implied probability

YES 88¢NO 12¢

recent price

+26¢ over the window

+26¢

24h change

$695K

24h volume

$854K

total volume

Jul 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?"?

The market currently prices YES at 88¢ and NO at 12¢, an implied probability of 88% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by July 31, 2026.

How much has been traded on this market?

$854K has been traded in total, $695K of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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