U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? final odds

This market has ended · July 31, 2026Final price YES — the market gave this a 0% implied probability.

"U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?" resolved on July 31, 2026 at a final price of — YES — a 0% implied probability — after $2.4M in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

0%

implied probability

YES NO

recent price

24h change

$105K

24h volume

$2.4M

total volume

Jul 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.

Quick answers

How did "U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?" resolve?

This market ended on July 31, 2026 with a final traded price of — YES (0% implied probability).

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at — — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$2.4M was traded over the market's lifetime.

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