US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? — live odds
"US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?" is trading at a 3% implied probability, with YES at 3¢ and NO at 97¢. $677K has changed hands so far, $49 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
3%
implied probability
recent price
0¢ over the window
0¢
24h change
$49
24h volume
$677K
total volume
Jan 1, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?"?
The market currently prices YES at 3¢ and NO at 97¢, an implied probability of 3% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
How much has been traded on this market?
$677K has been traded in total, $49 of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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