Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? — live odds

Part of Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner· see all 9 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?" is trading at a 97% implied probability, with YES at 96¢ and NO at 4¢. $683K has changed hands so far, $28K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by August 4, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

97%

implied probability

YES 96¢NO 4¢

recent price

+1¢ over the window

+1¢

24h change

$28K

24h volume

$683K

total volume

Aug 4, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

complete set arb
sum: 0.923 · edge: 0.067
26d ago
High volatility
±30¢ swing band
43d ago
Odds swing
16¢ → 90¢ (+74¢ in 15 min)
43d ago
High volatility
±19.8¢ swing band
43d ago
Odds swing
28¢ → 97¢ (+69¢ in 15 min)
43d ago
High volatility
±20.7¢ swing band
43d ago
Odds swing
10¢ → 74¢ (+64¢ in 15 min)
43d ago
High volatility
±26.6¢ swing band
43d ago
Odds swing
97¢ → 22¢ (-75¢ in 15 min)
43d ago
High volatility
±31.3¢ swing band
43d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.